Is Australia prepared to respond to a national security crisis today, or are we entering a dangerous gap between emerging threats and future defence capabilities?

In this CoveTalk, recorded during a recent virtual address to Anglesea Barracks Officers Mess, Marc Ablong, PSM examines Australia's growing strategic vulnerability in an increasingly contested security environment.

Using a hypothetical 2028 scenario involving cyber-attacks, infrastructure disruption, misinformation campaigns and regional coercion, Marc explores how hostile actors could exploit ambiguity to create national paralysis without triggering a conventional military response.

This CoveTalk considers the widening gap between contemporary security threats and major defence capabilities scheduled for delivery in the 2030s and beyond. It also examines the importance of national resilience, civil preparedness, mobilisation and coordination between government, industry and society. Ultimately, Marc highlights how we must consider whether the nation is truly prepared to "fight tonight" and what must be done now to close the current "valley of vulnerability".

About the Speaker:

Marc Ablong, PSM is a Senior Fellow at ASPI and Managing Partner of Geo Strategic Risk Partners, where he advises organisations on navigating geopolitical risk and strategic uncertainty.

He concluded a 31-year career in the Australian Public Service in 2024, most recently serving as Deputy Secretary in the Department of Home Affairs. Prior to this, he spent 25 years in the Department of Defence, where he held a range of senior policy and strategy roles and led the development of the 2016 Defence White Paper, Integrated Investment Program and Defence Industry Policy Statement.

Marc is a graduate of the Joint Services Staff College, the Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies, and Harvard Business School’s Advanced Management Program. He was awarded the Public Service Medal in the 2018 Australia Day Honours for outstanding public service.