The rise of China in Vanuatu and the South Pacific. 

China has longstanding links with Vanuatu, including funding the construction of Vanuatu’s parliamentary building in 1993. Vanuatu’s first Prime Minister Father Walter Lini – founder of the National United Party – signed a diplomatic agreement with China, and there have been many visits between the countries since then.

Vanuatu was one of the first Pacific countries to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2018, which resulted in the construction of key infrastructure projects. These include a new presidential palace, a new Ministry of Finance building, educational institutions, industrial facilities (such as a fishery processing plant) and roads. The roads are highly prized as they connect remote communities, make it easier for farmers to transport goods to markets, and provide access to health services.

While these infrastructure projects are appealing, they are expensive to maintain without ongoing funding and maintenance support. There is also a risk that Vanuatu may not be able to meet loan repayments in the event of a natural disaster or other economic shocks. There is also concern about construction quality and safety in light of the damage sustained to several buildings following the December 2024 earthquake, including the relatively new presidential palace and Malapoa College.

The construction of a Beijing-funded 360 metre wharf has gained attention, as it is capable of berthing large vessels (both commercial and military) which makes it potentially dual-use infrastructure. While both countries insist there is no intent to use the wharf for military purposes. It is unclear whether the wharf loan contract with the Vanuatu government includes a so-called debt-equity swap clause, which would mean China could take over the facility if Vanuatu defaults on its payments. Any security agreement between Vanuatu and China that would allow police or military personnel, or Chinese naval ships to be stationed close to Australia’s shores, is a concern.

Vanuatu and China are deliberating on a new Memorandum of Understanding affirming China's police assistance programs. China is already assisting the Vanuatu Police Force (VPF) by deploying police training teams, and providing motorcycles, drones, and uniforms. According to the Chinese Embassy, it assessed the capability needs of the VPF at Vanuatu’s invitation, and in December 2024 China handed over a package of military and security equipment.

This recently expanded relationship is troubling at a time when the Government of Vanuatu has again expressed a desire to grow the Vanuatu Mobile Force (VMF), an arm of the police force, into a fully-fledged military. Australia would be a natural partner to assist Vanuatu to form a military, although China, New Zealand, France, and the United States have also worked with the VMF in the past.  

For further information on Vanuatu’s relationship with China, see the resources below:

Videos

1. The China Syndrome: Part One – Is China taking over the South Pacific? (60 Minutes Australia, 9m 24s)
2. Vanuatu’s Way of Life Threatened Amid Rising Chinese Investment (Radio Free Asia, 10m 15s)
3. Chinese construction companies under scrutiny after Port Vila earthquake - ABC Pacific
4. Chinese wharf in Vanuatu raising eyebrows across the Pacific
5. Malapoa College students to relocate from quake-damaged Chinese buildings to old British Campus | News | dailypost.vu
   

Podcast

1. China’s Influence in Melanesia: A Conversation with Pete Connolly (Centre for Strategic and International Studies,47m 21s)
2. Step Up or Be Overrun: China’s Challenge for the Pacific (The Little Red Podcast, 36m 18s)

Articles

1. On the ground in Vanuatu, monuments to China's growing influence are everywhere (smh.com.au)
2. Chinese military base in Vanuatu rumours, News, La Trobe University
3. A new China loan threatens Vanuatu’s debt outlook | Lowy Institute
4. Chinese police experts arrive in Vanuatu amid political crisis | Reuters
5. The Long Arm of Chinese Law Reaches Vanuatu, Again – The Diplomat
6. One year, three agreements: shaping thinking on regional security - Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre
7. US to open embassy in Vanuatu as it seeks to counter China in the Pacific | Vanuatu | The Guardian
8. Vanuatu Prime Minister Is Ousted Amid Criticism of Being Pro-West - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
9. Great power rivalry shakes up Pacific Island nation | Responsible Statecraft
10. Awkward alarum: China, Vanuatu and Oz | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)