This article contends that predicting adversary behaviour through course of action analysis creates a false perception of certainty for a commander. A more effective approach is to use 'expectations analysis' - combining adversary capabilities and intentions and examining how the operating environment directly affects these variables.

Missed the livestream of our latest CoveTalk? Watch it here as Dr Levi West presents 'Reflections on Defence of One's Homeland: What Can We Learn From the Hamas Attack on Israel and Their Response', held at Randwick Barracks Officer’s Mess on 25 June.