In this first of two posts, Commander Forces Command provides summaries on books from the former Commander CENTCOM's reading list.

This article contends that predicting adversary behaviour through course of action analysis creates a false perception of certainty for a commander. A more effective approach is to use 'expectations analysis' - combining adversary capabilities and intentions and examining how the operating environment directly affects these variables.

Part 2 of Commander FORCOMD's review of the CENTCOM reading list.